Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Wednesday 29 November 2023

Battle of the Political Opinion Polls November 2023

 

Two very different sources, two very different results, published two days apart - who does one believe?


Roy Morgan Research, Market Research Update, email, 28 November 2023:


Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%



The ALP has regained the lead on 52.5% (up 3% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week.


The result halts a run of three straight weeks of declines for the ALP.


On primary vote the Coalition is now on 35%, down 2.5% from a week ago, ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 2.5%. The Greens are unchanged on 13.5% and One Nation is on 5%, down 1.5%.


There has been a gain in support for Independents on 9%, up 2%, but a drop in support for Other Parties on 5.5%, down 0.5%.


The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,379 Australian electors from November 20-26, 2023.



The Australian, Latest Newspoll, 26 November 2023:


Newspoll Two Party Preferred results
10.02.19 to 25.11.23
Click on image to enlarge





Federal Primary Voting Intention:

ALP 31 (-4)

Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 6 (no change)

Other 12 (+2)


Federal Two Party Preferred:

ALP 50 (-2)

Coalition 50 (+2)


Preferred Prime Minister:

Albanese 46 (no change)

Dutton 35 (-1)


Leaders Approval Rating:

Dutton: Approve 37 (no change) Disapprove 50 (no change)

Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)



Thursday 16 November 2023

Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023 - 17th annual survey by Scanlon Foundation Research Institute - social cohesion in Australia has declined by 13 points since November 2020

 


"Trust in government and concern for inequality are contributing to a declining sense of national pride and belonging....Social cohesion has declined in almost all

domains over the last year." [Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023, pp. 8, 13]



Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023, Executive Summary, 14 November 2023:


Social cohesion in Australia has been remarkably resilient through the challenges of recent years. However, we continue to face difficult national and global circumstances, global conflict, economic pressures and uncertainty and division over issues such as the Voice referendum.



As a result – and while we remain connected – our social cohesion is under pressure and declining on some fronts.

Our sense of national pride and belonging has been

declining for some years, discrimination and prejudice

remain stubbornly common, while in more recent years,

we are reporting greater financial stress, increased

concern for economic inequality and growing pessimism for the future. However, in the strong connections we have in our neighbourhoods and communities and the way we increasingly embrace our differences and diversity, there is reason for optimism that we can respond collectively to the challenges we face and restore and strengthen our social cohesion.



Mapping Social Cohesion 2023


The Mapping Social Cohesion 2023 report comes

at a crucial time – a time to take stock and consider

the challenges ahead. In 2023, almost 7,500 people

participated in the Mapping Social Cohesion survey,

making it the largest survey in the series. As has been the case since 2018, the 2023 survey was administered to the Social Research Centre’s Life in AustraliaTM panel.



In preparing this year’s Mapping Social Cohesion report, we have taken extra steps to ensure we are reflecting the views of all Australians, particularly in view of our vast ethnic and cultural diversity. To do this, 251 targeted surveys were conducted with people from Indian, Middle Eastern and African backgrounds in four different languages (including English). We also conducted 55 in-depth qualitative interviews with people who have migrated to Australia over the years. This adds to the growing body of information on the attitudes and experiences of migrant Australians collected through the main Life in AustraliaTM survey, providing a greater, more in-depth and nuanced understanding than ever before.

More information on the surveys and interviews are

provided in the Appendix of this report.



Social cohesion in Australia is under pressure

and declining


In our 2022 report, we remarked that social cohesion

appeared to be at an important juncture. Our indicators

suggested that cohesion had been declining after a

COVID-related spike in 2020. While there were some

signs to suggest that cohesion was returning to a

pre-pandemic normal, declines in our sense of national

pride and belonging, increasing financial strain and a

weakening sense of social inclusion and justice were

warning signs of further weakening in our social fabric.

The results of Mapping Social Cohesion 2023 reinforce

these concerns and underline the precarious and

uncertain social environment of Australia in 2023.

In the last 12 months, the Scanlon-Monash Index of social cohesion declined by four points to 79, the lowest score on record. Since a peak in social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2020, social cohesion has declined by 13 points.



Read and download the full report at:

https://scanloninstitute.org.au/mapping-social-cohesion-2023


Sunday 29 October 2023

AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY: Counting Dead Women in 2023


@DeadWomenAus
26 October 2023





Based on media reports collected from 1 January to 26 October 2023 the Counting Dead Women project has recorded 41 violent deaths of females across Australia this year, at the hands of persons known to them. 


In the year to June 2023, according to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), 15 of these violent deaths were recorded as murders occurring in New South Wales - one in the Northern Rivers region. 


In 2022 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded 56 women and 11 girls under the age of 18 years murdered - a total of 67 violent deaths - and the attempted murder of another 43 women & girls.


The majority of these deaths appear to have occurred in residential properties.


In 2022 ABS recorded 19 women and girls in NSW as victims of homicide or related offences (murder, attempted murder, manslaughter).  Again, the majority appeared to have occurred in residential properties.  At least 10 of these deaths appear to have been classified as murder.  


SOURCES:

  • Destroy the Joint, Counting Dead Women project; 

https://twitter.com/DeadWomenAus

  • ABS, Victims of crime, Australia 2022, Tables 1-8 & 9-16National statistics about victims of a range of personal, household and family and domestic violence offences as recorded by police.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release#australia

  •  NSW BOSCAR, Female Victims of Homicide (Murder) from July 2021 to June 2023

http://crimetool.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/



Thursday 19 October 2023

Australia has been in less than zero population growth from natural increase for over 40 years and continues to supplement its short & long term production & workforce needs through overseas migration


Births, Australia: Statistics about births and fertility rates for Australia, states and territories, and sub-state regions, Reference period 2022, Australian Bureau of Statistics, statistical series.




Click on table to enlarge


Total fertility rate is the number of registered births per woman.

Crude birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 estimated resident population.

Net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters surviving to reproductive age per woman.

Sex ratio is the number of male births per 100 female births.

All statistics are based on year of registration unless otherwise specified.



Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 18 October 20232:


Australian women are having fewer children, and having them later in life according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).


Emily Walter, ABS head of demography said; “Today’s data continues a trend we’ve seen in births over the last 40 years, with the average age of both mothers and fathers steadily increasing since the mid 1970s.


In 1975, less than 20 per cent of births were to mothers who were between 30 and 39 years old, but now nearly 60 per cent of births are to mothers in this age group.”


Australian women are also having fewer children. The total fertility rate has remained lower than the replacement rate (considered to be 2.1 babies per woman to replace her and her partner, in the absence of overseas migration) since 1976.


In 2022, this was 1.63 births per woman, which was lower than the 2021 rate of 1.70 births per woman, but higher than the 1.59 births per woman recorded in 2020.


Although total fertility remains low, the fertility rate for women in their late 30s and early 40s has significantly increased.


From 1991 to 2022, the fertility rate of mothers aged 35-39 years has almost doubled from 36.0 to 69.3 births per 1,000 women, and for mothers aged 40-44 years, it has nearly tripled from 5.5 to 15.8 births per 1,000 women.


In contrast, the fertility rate of teenage mothers has reached an all-time low of 6.8 births per 1,000 women, from 22.1 births per 1,000 women in 1991.” Ms Walter said.


The falling fertility rates of women aged under 30 years and the rising fertility rates of women in their thirties and early forties, are consistent with women having their first and subsequent births later in life.


This shift towards older parenthood largely follows from young people tending to reach the milestones which usually precede parenthood (i.e. leaving the parental home, gaining economic independence, and marrying or forming long-term de facto relationships) later than was seen in previous decades.


In 2022:

  • Australia registered a total of 300,684 births, a decrease of over 9,000 from 2021 but higher than 2020 numbers.

  • Women aged 30-34 years had the highest fertility rate (114.9 births per 1,000 women or about 1 birth for every 9 women), followed by women aged 25-29 years (83.0 births per 1,000 women).

  • Of women aged 15-49 years, women in the 45-49 years cohort continue to have the lowest fertility rate (1.1 babies per 1,000 women).

  • The fertility rate of women aged 15-19 years was the lowest on record (6.8 babies per 1,000 women).

  • The Northern Territory recorded the highest total fertility rate (1.73 babies per woman), followed by New South Wales and Queensland with 1.71 babies per woman.

  • The Australian Capital Territory had the lowest total fertility rate (1.41 babies per woman).


When one looks at the seven local government areas which make up the NSW Northern Rivers region, in 2022:


Ballina – 439 registered births, total fertility rate 1.83

Byron – 364 registered births, total fertility rate 1.42

Clarence Valley – 575 registered births, total fertility rate 1.42

Kyogle – 95 registered births, total fertility rate 2.40

Lismore – 466 registered births, total fertility rate 1.84

Richmond Valley – 262 registered births, total fertility rate 2.27

Tweed – 1,060 registered births, total fertility rate 2.00.

[Table 3.1 Births, Summary Local Government Area]


It would appear that despite high rainfall & rain dumps, east coast low storms and record floods, in 2022 the stork still managed to deliver a good many bundles across this region.


Thursday 28 September 2023

Newspoll published Monday 25 September 2023: a curate's egg, good in parts

 

Newspoll published 25 September 2023:


24 September 2023



VOTING INTENTION PRIMARY VOTE


Labor36 points (+1)

Coalition36 points (-1)

Greens11 points (-2)

One Nation6 points (-1)

Others11 points (+3)



VOTING INTENTION TWO-PARTY PREFERRED (TPP)


Labor – 54 points (+1)

Coalition – 46 points (-1)


Click on graph to enlarge











BETTER PM


Anthony Albanese – 50 points (no change)

Peter Dutton – 30 points (-1)



APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL RATING


Anthony AlbaneseApprove 47 points (+1)

                                   Disapprove 44 points (-3)

Peter Dutton Approve 32 points (-6)

      Disapprove 52 points (+3)

      Net Approval -20 points



Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament Referendum Voting Intention


YES36 points (-2 )

NO56 points (+3 )

UNDECIDED8 points (-1)



Monday 11 September 2023

Australia and the world are fast running out of time to limit negative impacts of climate change to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia

 

The United Nations website is very clear about what has been agreed at an international level concerning the global response required to limit the Earth’s global warming to an average 1.5°C, thereby limiting the negative impacts of climate change in intensity and time span – hopefully to spans of multiple generations rather than millennia.


The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.


Its overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”


Australia is a party to the 2015 Paris Agreement, effective 4 November 2016.


However, in recent years, world leaders have stressed the need to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of this century.


That’s because the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.


To limit global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.


All those nations which entered into the Paris Agreement agreed to participate in the global attempt to reduce the world’s greenhouse gas emission by establishing firm undertakings in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).


In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries also communicate in their NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of climate change.


Australia submitted its first NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 2015 and updated that version of the NDC in 2022. This update commits Australia to reducing its emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. It should be noted that in 2005 Australia’s total national greenhouse gas emissions of 559.1 million tonnes of carbon equivalent gases (MT CO2-e) was already 102.2% of its 1990 annual total of 515.9 MT CO2-e.


It could be said that even now our national reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is sluggish at best.


"For the year to June [2023], according to the preliminary numbers from the government’s latest national greenhouse gas inventory, emissions were 4.1 million tonnes above those for the corresponding period the previous year." [The Saturday Paper, 08.09.23]

 


In the year to December 2015 Australia’s “annual unadjusted” greenhouse gas emissions stood at 529.2 MT CO2-e. An artificially constructed figure because per government policy it excluded emissions from from land use, land use change and forestry. These excluded emissions would have possibly added more than 1.0 MT CO2-e bringing the national annual total to over 30 MT CO2-e in 2015.


By year to December 2022 Australia’s “actual annual” greenhouse gas emissions were recorded as 463.9 MT CO2-e. A figure arrived at by an alleged fall in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry of est. -13.6 MT CO2-e due to professed reductions in land clearing and native forest harvesting, increases in plantations and native vegetation, and improvements in soil carbon. NOTE: By year to December 2022 each person in Australia was estimated to be responsible for 17.8 tonnes CO2-e of that year’s greenhouse gas emissions total.


What Australian governments and industries has effected was a paltry national greenhouse gas emissions change of est.

-65.3 MT CO2-e spread over eight years – an average of 8.1. Or est. -95.2 MT CO2-e spread over 17 years – an average of 5.6 MT CO2-e per annum. And that change was to a significant degree on the back of the adoption of rooftop renewable energy by the general population which in the year to December 2022 was contributing to an electricity sector emissions reduction of 5.5 MT CO2-e, according to the Dept. of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.


Either way, leaving Australia with an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least the promised -240.4 MT CO2-e within the next seven years. That’s roughly 34.3 MT CO2-e emissions we have to cease releasing into the air, waterways and oceans each and every year until 2030 to even have a chance at surviving as a nation and a functioning society beyond that year.


Creative accounting using offsets, hiding behind green washing propaganda, pushing hard decisions further down the track into the future, just won’t work. We need to immediately tighten polluting emissions regulations & abatement requirements, begin phasing out current unabated fossils greenhouse gas and, from this point in time where we stand right now, we must refuse all new or expanded proposals for fossil fuel extraction and use.


Australian industry and corporations both foreign and domestic are laughing in our faces and, federal & state governments appear all but frozen into inaction by the magnitude of the climate crisis before us. There will be no heroes coming down from the mountains to save us, no ships arriving to sail us all to as yet undiscovered safety, no divine miracles falling from the skies.


Australia’s estimated resident population stood at 26,268,359 men, women and children in December 2022 according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. 


An estimated 21,461,249 of the resident population in 2022 were individuals 15 years of age and older.


By default theirs is the burden of stopping that 240.4 MT CO2-e of additional pollution entering earth’s atmosphere over Australia by 2030. That’s an extra 11.2 tonnes CO2-e per person averaging 1.6 tonne of carbon equivalent a year.


So how do we each attempt to shoulder this terrible burden? 


"Key finding 4: global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels." 

[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake, Advance Version 8 September 2023, excerpt]

 



PRINCIPAL SOURCES




Postscript:


Stocktaking our personal emissions level and, looking at ways of reducing that average per head of population average green house gas emission excessive budget of 17.8 tonnes CO2-e, may be something we can all attempt. 


For example: 


  • the average vehicle in Australia is estimated to travel 12,100 km per year or 33.2 km per day, which represents around 2.1 tonne CO2-e annually; 

  • while the average household across all power supply types is estimated to consume 5,818.6kw/h of electricity each year, which can be as high as 3 tonne CO2-e annually depending on the mix of supply types per household; and

  • imported food or imported ingredients have food transport kilometres attached, which in Australia's case means food importation from the European Union represents est. 1.3 MT CO2-e annually or approx. 50 kg CO2-e per capita. A serve of deli sausage from Denmark travels est. 25,000 food kilometres to reach the supermarket counter. 


Time to get cracking and shame the devils who brought us to this catastrophic pass - even if the task appears impossible and we merely so many cursed children of a condemned Sisyphus.


Tuesday 18 July 2023

And this week brought another Newspoll.....

 

On Saturday 15 July 2023 there was a federal by-election in the Queensland electorate of Fadden – a safe seat for the Coalition having been held at 16 out of the 17 federal elections since the electorate was created in 1977.


The by-election was caused by incumbent Stuart Robert, a former minister in the Morrison Government resigning in anticipation of being named in the Report of the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme.


As predicted the LNP candidate, Gold Coast City councillor Cameron Caldwell, won on the day with 49.06% of the first preference vote and 63.26% of the two-candidate preferred vote as at AEC recorded ballot count on 17 July.


Coincidentally, 14-15 July 2023 were the dates on which Newspoll conducted one of its national surveys of voter intentions.


This particular survey clearly indicated that if a general election had been held last Saturday, then MP for Dickson & Leader of the Liberal Party Peter Dutton & his Coalition cronies would remain on the Opposition benches.





IMAGES: The Australian, 17 July 2023

Click on graphs to enlarge


Here are the percentages revealed in this month’s survey.


Primary Vote

Labor – 36 (+2)

Coalition – 34 (-1.7)

Greens – 12 (+1)

One Nation – 7 (+1)

Others – 11 (+1)


Two-Party Preferred

Labor55 (+1)

Coalition45 (-1)


Performance Approval Rating

ALBANESE:

Satisfied 52 (unchanged)

Dissatisfied41 (-1)

DUTTON:

Satisfied36 (-2)

Dissatisfied49 (unchanged)


BY 15 JULY 2023 LABOR'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:


Primary Vote: 3.4% higher

Two Party Preferred: 1.9% higher

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 54% - no change


BY 15 JULY 2023 COALITION'S SURVEY POSITION IN COMPARISON WITH ITS POSITION ON DAY OF 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION WAS:


Primary Vote: 1.7% lower

Two-Party Preferred: 2.9% lower

Better Prime Minister:

Dutton 29% - 1% higher.