North-east NSW coastal waters since 1850: a 'hot spot' for shark numbers

 

There are 8 real-time, satellite-linked VR4G listening stations deployed in approximately 10 to 12 metres depth of water approx. 500 metres offshore along the stretch of coastal waters off the Northern Rivers region in north-east New South Wales.

These listening station buoys are located at:

Kingscliff Beach, Tweed Heads

Clarkes Beach, Byron Bay

Lennox Point, Lennox Head

Sharps Beach, Ballina

Lighthouse Beach, Ballina

Main Beach, Evans Head

Main Beach, Yamba.

VR4G listening station off Lighthouse Beach, Ballina

IMAGE: NSW DPI Shark Smart

In 2023 the total number of shark detections at each of these 8 listening buoys were:

Kingscliff Beach - 305 (302 Bull Sharks & 3 White Sharks)

Clarkes Beach - 409 (213 White Sharks & 196 Bull Sharks)

Lennox Point*         | These 3 sites combined

Sharps Beach*        | 2,026 detections of

Lighthouse Beach* | 1,175 Bull, 755 White & 116 Tiger sharks

Main Beach, Evans Head - 3,135 (3,031 Bull Sharks & 96 White Sharks)

Main Beach, Yamba - 17,501 (17,306 Bull Sharks, 103 White Sharks & 2 Tiger Sharks).

Although in 2023 Yamba might have been the main contender for the title of shark capital of New South Wales, particularly in the months of April to August, there have been zero fatal shark attacks in Yamba river or ocean waters since 1850 and, only 37 injuries resulting from contact with a shark recorded by the Australian Shark Incident Database in that same 174 year period.

DPI Fisheries advise: tagged Bull Shark #1874 detected by Yamba receiver at 06:47:38 AM (AEST) on 24-April-2024. Last detected at 05:52:50 PM (AEST) on 19-April-2024 by Yamba receiver. Tagged and released 28-April-2023(AEST) at Main Beach, Yamba.

— SharkSmart (@NSWSharkSmart) April 23, 2024

As for the entire coastline of north-east NSW along with its saltwater river mouths, from the Clarence Valley up to the NSW-Qld border, there have been est. 361 interactions with sharks resulting in injury since 1850, including est. 37 deaths.

Newspoll April 2024 sees little wind in political parties' sails

 

Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 33 (+1)

L/NP Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 12 (-1)

One Nation 7 (0)

Other 10 (-1)

Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

Click on image to enlarge

ALP 51 (0)

L/NP Coalition 49 (0)

Better Prime Minister:

Click on image to enlarge

Albanese 48 (0)

Dutton 35 (+1)

Net Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese:  -6 (+1) 

Peter Dutton:  -15 (0) 

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov on Monday 15 to Friday 19 April 2024 and survey pool was 1,236

When will men stop blaming the ME TOO Movement for women's present outrage? EVERY SINGLE FEMALE in Australia was born into a world where all women are always vulnerable & unsafe and we absorbed this fact with the air we breathe

 

The  Me Too Movement began in the United States around 2006 and in 2017 the #meetoo hashtag went viral when actress Alyssa Milano tweeted ‘me too’ in the United States and in Australia journalist Tracy Spicer invited women to tell their story after the Weinstein scandal broke. 

However, the female experience in Australia had always been hiding in plain sight from those in authority and ever keenly felt by women & girls who had experienced physical violence and/or sexual assault in the home, in the workplace or in public spaces.

By way of example.

First the murders......

This my friends sums it all up, women’s lives today, tomorrow and everyday 👇🏻#MakeItStop#March4Justice @march4justiceau

pic.twitter.com/hUP5HKASkl

— Janine Hendry @_Janine_Hendry on Threads | Insta (@janine_hendry) April 15, 2024

 

Now the sexual assaults/rapes......

2022

Sexual Assault Reported To Police

According to ABS Recorded Crime – Victims data, in Australia in 2022: 

32,100 sexual assaults were recorded, with 5 in 6 (84% or 27,000) perpetrated against females the rate of sexual assault was higher for females (206 per 100,000), than males (39 per 100,000) there was significant variation in sexual assault rates between states and territories. ACT had the lowest rate of sexual assaults (71 per 100,000 persons) while NSW had the highest rate (152 per 100,000) (ABS 2023a)..... There was a 43% increase in the rates of police-recorded sexual assault for women between 2010 and 2022.[Australian Government, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), 12 April 2024]  

2019

Sexual Assault

In 2019 there were 26,892 victims of sexual assault in Australia, an increase of 2% from the previous year. This was the eighth consecutive annual increase and the highest number for this offence recorded in a single year. After accounting for population growth, the victimisation rate has also increased annually over this eight-year period from 83 to 106 victims per 100,000 persons.

For victims of sexual assault in 2019:

• The majority (83%) were female (22,337 victims)
• Around two-thirds (67%) occurred in a residential location (17,395 victims)
• A third were FDV-related (8,985 victims)
• Almost all (95%) did not involve a weapon (25,583 victims)

[ABS, Victims of Crime Australia 2019, 9 July 2020] 

2000

Summary of Findings 

There were 2,804 male and 12,396 female victims of sexual assault. The highest victimisation rates were recorded for males aged 0–14 years and for females aged 15–19 years, with 61% of all victims aged 19 years or younger. Similar proportions of male and female victims knew the offender (64% of male victims and 61% of female victims), and for both sexes approximately one-quarter of all offenders were family members. Almost two-thirds (64%) of all sexual assaults occurred in a residential location and almost all sexual assaults did not involve weapon use (98%). Less than half (41%) of all sexual assault investigations were finalised within 30 days of the offence becoming known to police, and of these 58% resulted in an offender being proceeded against. [ABS, Recorded Crime Australia 2000, 30 May 2001]

1998

Most victims of sexual assault were female (80%). Almost half (47%) were females aged under 20 years. The total number of sexual assaults recorded was 14,568 at a rate of 78 for every 100,000 people. The highest victimisation rates were recorded in the Northern Territory (124 per 100,000 people) and Western Australia (100 per 100,000 people)....The number of victims of sexual assault increased slightly (1.5%), rising from 14,353 victims in 1997 to 14,568 victims in 1998. [ABS, Recorded Crime Australia 1998, 16 June 1999]

Well now the Chicken Little's of Australian journalism have moved on to other topics, here is another perspective on that latest Newspoll

 

Well the headlines this week ran a particular pessimistic line.....

Fresh Newspoll suggests Labor spiralling towards minority government at next election in worst result since Voice defeat [Sky News, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Labor on slide as new year reset fades [The Australian, 25.03.24]

Newspoll: Worst result for Albanese gov since referendum backlash [The Courier Mail, 25.03.25]

Federal Labor's Popularity Slips In Latest Newspoll [10Play, 25.03.25]

Voters’ harsh verdict on Labor as cost of living bites [The Daily Telegraph, 25 March 2025]

So what exactly did the latest Newspoll survey results show?

NEWSPOLL, Sunday 24 March 2024

Newspoll was conducted by YouGov from 18-22 March using a survey pool of 1,223 participants.

Federal Primary Voting Intent:

ALP 32 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 37 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 7 (+1)

Other 11

Federal Two Party Preferred Prediction:

ALP 51 (-1)

L/NP Coalition 49 (+1)

Click on image to enlarge

Better Prime Minister:

Albanese 48 (+1)

Dutton 34 (-1)

Approval Rating

Anthony Albanese: Approve 44 (+1) Disapprove 51 (0)

Peter Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 52 (+1)

By way of context

On 24 March 2024 the nation was 61 weeks out from the last possible date for next federal general election, 17 May 2025.

This 24 March the two party preferred outcome of 51-49 in Labor's favour mirrored past Newspolls on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 Jan, 23 Feb & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

In Newspoll on those same dates the Coalition had the higher primary vote on:

28 April, 5 & 12 May 2019

12 January, 23 February & 15 March 2020

25 April, 16 May & 27 June 2021.

 

With the 16 May 2021 Coalition primary vote lead being a 5 point advantage making it an identical voting intention & prediction poll with this week's 24 March 2024 poll.

At approximtely 61 weeks out from May 2022 federal election, Newspoll was showing a two-party preferred prediction outcome of 52-48 in Labour's favour and, a primary voting intention outcome of somewhere between 40-38 & 42-37 in the Coalition's favour by 2-5 points.

It would seem this is a road well travelled and this far out from an election gives no real indication of the mood of a national electorate in May 2025.

Battle of the Political Opinion Polls November 2023

 

Two very different sources, two very different results, published two days apart - who does one believe?

Roy Morgan Research, Market Research Update, email, 28 November 2023:

Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows support for the ALP recovering – up 3% points: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

The ALP has regained the lead on 52.5% (up 3% on a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted last week.

The result halts a run of three straight weeks of declines for the ALP.

On primary vote the Coalition is now on 35%, down 2.5% from a week ago, ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 2.5%. The Greens are unchanged on 13.5% and One Nation is on 5%, down 1.5%.

There has been a gain in support for Independents on 9%, up 2%, but a drop in support for Other Parties on 5.5%, down 0.5%.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,379 Australian electors from November 20-26, 2023.

The Australian, Latest Newspoll, 26 November 2023:

Newspoll Two Party Preferred results
10.02.19 to 25.11.23
Click on image to enlarge

Federal Primary Voting Intention:

ALP 31 (-4)

Coalition 38 (+1)

Greens 13 (+1)

One Nation 6 (no change)

Other 12 (+2)

Federal Two Party Preferred:

ALP 50 (-2)

Coalition 50 (+2)

Preferred Prime Minister:

Albanese 46 (no change)

Dutton 35 (-1)

Leaders Approval Rating:

Dutton: Approve 37 (no change) Disapprove 50 (no change)

Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)

Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023 - 17th annual survey by Scanlon Foundation Research Institute - social cohesion in Australia has declined by 13 points since November 2020

 

"Trust in government and concern for inequality are contributing to a declining sense of national pride and belonging....Social cohesion has declined in almost all

domains over the last year." [Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023, pp. 8, 13]

Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, Mapping Social Cohesion Report 2023, Executive Summary, 14 November 2023:

Social cohesion in Australia has been remarkably resilient through the challenges of recent years. However, we continue to face difficult national and global circumstances, global conflict, economic pressures and uncertainty and division over issues such as the Voice referendum.

As a result – and while we remain connected – our social cohesion is under pressure and declining on some fronts.

Our sense of national pride and belonging has been

declining for some years, discrimination and prejudice

remain stubbornly common, while in more recent years,

we are reporting greater financial stress, increased

concern for economic inequality and growing pessimism for the future. However, in the strong connections we have in our neighbourhoods and communities and the way we increasingly embrace our differences and diversity, there is reason for optimism that we can respond collectively to the challenges we face and restore and strengthen our social cohesion.

Mapping Social Cohesion 2023

The Mapping Social Cohesion 2023 report comes

at a crucial time – a time to take stock and consider

the challenges ahead. In 2023, almost 7,500 people

participated in the Mapping Social Cohesion survey,

making it the largest survey in the series. As has been the case since 2018, the 2023 survey was administered to the Social Research Centre’s Life in AustraliaTM panel.

In preparing this year’s Mapping Social Cohesion report, we have taken extra steps to ensure we are reflecting the views of all Australians, particularly in view of our vast ethnic and cultural diversity. To do this, 251 targeted surveys were conducted with people from Indian, Middle Eastern and African backgrounds in four different languages (including English). We also conducted 55 in-depth qualitative interviews with people who have migrated to Australia over the years. This adds to the growing body of information on the attitudes and experiences of migrant Australians collected through the main Life in AustraliaTM survey, providing a greater, more in-depth and nuanced understanding than ever before.

More information on the surveys and interviews are

provided in the Appendix of this report.

Social cohesion in Australia is under pressure

and declining

In our 2022 report, we remarked that social cohesion

appeared to be at an important juncture. Our indicators

suggested that cohesion had been declining after a

COVID-related spike in 2020. While there were some

signs to suggest that cohesion was returning to a

pre-pandemic normal, declines in our sense of national

pride and belonging, increasing financial strain and a

weakening sense of social inclusion and justice were

warning signs of further weakening in our social fabric.

The results of Mapping Social Cohesion 2023 reinforce

these concerns and underline the precarious and

uncertain social environment of Australia in 2023.

In the last 12 months, the Scanlon-Monash Index of social cohesion declined by four points to 79, the lowest score on record. Since a peak in social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic in November 2020, social cohesion has declined by 13 points.

Read and download the full report at:

https://scanloninstitute.org.au/mapping-social-cohesion-2023

AUSTRALIAN SOCIETY: Counting Dead Women in 2023

@DeadWomenAus
26 October 2023

Based on media reports collected from 1 January to 26 October 2023 the Counting Dead Women project has recorded 41 violent deaths of females across Australia this year, at the hands of persons known to them. 

In the year to June 2023, according to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), 15 of these violent deaths were recorded as murders occurring in New South Wales - one in the Northern Rivers region. 

In 2022 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recorded 56 women and 11 girls under the age of 18 years murdered - a total of 67 violent deaths - and the attempted murder of another 43 women & girls.

The majority of these deaths appear to have occurred in residential properties.

In 2022 ABS recorded 19 women and girls in NSW as victims of homicide or related offences (murder, attempted murder, manslaughter).  Again, the majority appeared to have occurred in residential properties.  At least 10 of these deaths appear to have been classified as murder.  

SOURCES:

• Destroy the Joint, Counting Dead Women project; 

https://twitter.com/DeadWomenAus

• ABS, Victims of crime, Australia 2022, Tables 1-8 & 9-16. National statistics about victims of a range of personal, household and family and domestic violence offences as recorded by police.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release#australia

•  NSW BOSCAR, Female Victims of Homicide (Murder) from July 2021 to June 2023. 

http://crimetool.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/bocsar/

Australia has been in less than zero population growth from natural increase for over 40 years and continues to supplement its short & long term production & workforce needs through overseas migration

Births, Australia: Statistics about births and fertility rates for Australia, states and territories, and sub-state regions, Reference period 2022, Australian Bureau of Statistics, statistical series.

Click on table to enlarge

Total fertility rate is the number of registered births per woman.

Crude birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 estimated resident population.

Net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters surviving to reproductive age per woman.

Sex ratio is the number of male births per 100 female births.

All statistics are based on year of registration unless otherwise specified.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 18 October 20232:

Australian women are having fewer children, and having them later in life according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Emily Walter, ABS head of demography said; “Today’s data continues a trend we’ve seen in births over the last 40 years, with the average age of both mothers and fathers steadily increasing since the mid 1970s.

“In 1975, less than 20 per cent of births were to mothers who were between 30 and 39 years old, but now nearly 60 per cent of births are to mothers in this age group.”

Australian women are also having fewer children. The total fertility rate has remained lower than the replacement rate (considered to be 2.1 babies per woman to replace her and her partner, in the absence of overseas migration) since 1976.

In 2022, this was 1.63 births per woman, which was lower than the 2021 rate of 1.70 births per woman, but higher than the 1.59 births per woman recorded in 2020.

“Although total fertility remains low, the fertility rate for women in their late 30s and early 40s has significantly increased.

“From 1991 to 2022, the fertility rate of mothers aged 35-39 years has almost doubled from 36.0 to 69.3 births per 1,000 women, and for mothers aged 40-44 years, it has nearly tripled from 5.5 to 15.8 births per 1,000 women.

In contrast, the fertility rate of teenage mothers has reached an all-time low of 6.8 births per 1,000 women, from 22.1 births per 1,000 women in 1991.” Ms Walter said.

The falling fertility rates of women aged under 30 years and the rising fertility rates of women in their thirties and early forties, are consistent with women having their first and subsequent births later in life.

This shift towards older parenthood largely follows from young people tending to reach the milestones which usually precede parenthood (i.e. leaving the parental home, gaining economic independence, and marrying or forming long-term de facto relationships) later than was seen in previous decades.

In 2022:

• Australia registered a total of 300,684 births, a decrease of over 9,000 from 2021 but higher than 2020 numbers.

• Women aged 30-34 years had the highest fertility rate (114.9 births per 1,000 women or about 1 birth for every 9 women), followed by women aged 25-29 years (83.0 births per 1,000 women).

• Of women aged 15-49 years, women in the 45-49 years cohort continue to have the lowest fertility rate (1.1 babies per 1,000 women).

• The fertility rate of women aged 15-19 years was the lowest on record (6.8 babies per 1,000 women).

• The Northern Territory recorded the highest total fertility rate (1.73 babies per woman), followed by New South Wales and Queensland with 1.71 babies per woman.

• The Australian Capital Territory had the lowest total fertility rate (1.41 babies per woman).

When one looks at the seven local government areas which make up the NSW Northern Rivers region, in 2022:

Ballina – 439 registered births, total fertility rate 1.83

Byron – 364 registered births, total fertility rate 1.42

Clarence Valley – 575 registered births, total fertility rate 1.42

Kyogle – 95 registered births, total fertility rate 2.40

Lismore – 466 registered births, total fertility rate 1.84

Richmond Valley – 262 registered births, total fertility rate 2.27

Tweed – 1,060 registered births, total fertility rate 2.00.

[Table 3.1 Births, Summary Local Government Area]

It would appear that despite high rainfall & rain dumps, east coast low storms and record floods, in 2022 the stork still managed to deliver a good many bundles across this region.

Newspoll published Monday 25 September 2023: a curate's egg, good in parts

 

Newspoll published 25 September 2023:

24 September 2023

VOTING INTENTION PRIMARY VOTE

Labor – 36 points (+1)

Coalition – 36 points (-1)

Greens – 11 points (-2)

One Nation – 6 points (-1)

Others – 11 points (+3)

VOTING INTENTION TWO-PARTY PREFERRED (TPP)

Labor – 54 points (+1)

Coalition – 46 points (-1)

Click on graph to enlarge

BETTER PM

Anthony Albanese – 50 points (no change)

Peter Dutton – 30 points (-1)

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL RATING

Anthony Albanese – Approve 47 points (+1)

                                   Disapprove 44 points (-3)

Peter Dutton – Approve 32 points (-6)

      Disapprove 52 points (+3)

      Net Approval -20 points

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament Referendum Voting Intention

YES – 36 points (-2 )

NO – 56 points (+3 )

UNDECIDED – 8 points (-1)