Showing posts with label BOM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BOM. Show all posts

Sunday 10 March 2024

El Niño persists and although it is likely to disappear by May 2024 it may become harder to reliably predict what will follow in the future

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 5 March 2024


Neutral ENSO likely during autumn



El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.


Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.


International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.


Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns and preventing the IOD pattern from forming.


The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral, as of 3 March. Forecasts indicate SAM will remain neutral over the coming fortnight.


The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is forecast to move into the Maritime Continent in the coming days and progress eastwards towards the Western Pacific over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean, increased cloudiness tends to occur over the eastern Indian Ocean and western parts of South East Asia. As the MJO shifts into the Maritime Continent, increased cloudiness tends to occur over parts of the far north of Australia and the islands of South East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.


The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period.


Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.


[my yellow highlighting]


Saturday 3 February 2024

Saturday's Mood: HOT!


Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Rivers Forecast, issued at 4:30 pm EDT on Friday 2 February 2024:


Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge into southern and western New South Wales today, while a trough of low pressure lies over the northeast. This trough will decay early Saturday as the high moves to the Tasman Sea, although a new trough is forecast to develop in the west during the weekend. This pattern will direct hot air from central Australia across New South Wales, peaking in many areas during Sunday. The remnants of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily look set to be drawn into the inland trough during Monday, potentially bringing significant rain to some western areas, before the whole system weakens and shifts to the state's east on Tuesday.


Heatwave Situation for 3 days starting Saturday 3rd February 2024 

Click on image to enlarge

NOTE: Heatwave mapping for this cycle commenced Wednesday 31 January 2024.


Tuesday 19 September 2023

The north-east NSW coastal fringe started the week with reasonable land & sea temperatures and only 6 bush & grass fires at advice level


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 18 September 2023: 

Air-Surface Temperature 4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM






Between 6am to 4pm Monday 18 September 2023 temperatures along the coastal fringe of north-east NSW ranged from 5.5°C to 26.7°C as the day progressed.


Sea Surface Temperatures & Current Direction 
4pm Monday 18 September 2023
MAP: BOM




The East Australian Current was still bringing waters close to shore which were a comfortable 20-21°C at 4pm Monday 18 September 2023.


This may not last long.....


Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Warmer than median October to December days and nights for almost all of Australia

Issued: 14 September 2023


For October to December, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For October to December, most of Australia is at least 3 times likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than 4 times likely for most of western and central WA, and parts of central and south-eastern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

For October to December, minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia apart from a small area of Queensland's North Tropical Coast.

For October to December, broad areas of Australia are at least 2.5 times likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than four times likely for parts of central WA, southern Queensland, and north-east NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the October to December long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to moderate for parts of north-western Australia.


Tuesday 20 June 2023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Outlook for next three months - Part 1

 


There is weather and there is climate.


While we grumble about cold weather and rain this winter, global warming is still inexorably changing Australia's climate as the continent and the oceans around it grow warmer and seasonal rainfalls become more erratic.


La Niña only dissipated in early March 2023 and El Niño was present in the Northern Hemisphere by early June and may be across the Southern Hemisphere before September - the ocean around the Galapagos Islands just south of the Equator is already warming to 20 degrees. It is beginning to appear as if the near average weather pattern period between these two extremes in the global ENSO cycle is beginning to contract.


This is the long range forecast for the next three months for Australia.


Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons:


Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 15 June 2023


  • For July to September, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for much of the eastern two-thirds of Australia and south-west WA.

  • July to September maximum temperatures are likely to very likely warmer than median (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

  • Above median July to September minimum temperatures likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.

  • This forecast is influenced by a number of factors, including warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean beyond El Niño thresholds, the potential development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and record warm oceans globally.


Currently Australia’s ENSO Outlook shows El Niño ALERT, which indicates a 70% chance of El Niño forming this year. This equates to roughly three times the normal chance of an El Niño forming.


Rainfall - Totals that have a 75% chance of occurring for July to September














Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for July to September














Australia: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Outlook – July to November 2023




U.S. NOAA Daily Global 5km Satellite Sea Surface Temperature, 17 July 2023



Click on images to enlarge



Friday 17 March 2023

La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH has begun.

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Climate Driver Update, media release, 14 March 2023:


Current status: EL NIÑO WATCH


La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH issued


  • La Niña has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with oceanic and atmospheric indicators having returned to neutral ENSO levels.


  • International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn. However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year. Hence the Bureau has issued an El Niño WATCH. This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently very strong over the Pacific Ocean but is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming fortnight. This may bring drier conditions to Australia for the latter half of March.


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently strongly negative but is expected to return to neutral values over the coming weeks.


  • Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist around south-east Australia, New Zealand and the west coast of Australia, but close to average temperatures prevail around northern Australia.


  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral – the IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April). Forecasts for the IOD made at this time of the year have low accuracy beyond April.


  • Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.


Wednesday 21 December 2022

La Niña continues into the Australian Summer

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Driver Update, 20 Dec 2022:



  • La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, but some indicators show signs of declining strength. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during summer. Models suggest that ocean temperatures may reach ENSO-neutral levels during January or February 2023, and remain at neutral levels until at least April. Model accuracy for lead times greater than four months is generally lower at this time of year than at other times, so outlooks beyond April should be viewed with caution.


  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April).


  • The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a positive phase and is likely to be neutral to positive through January and February. During summer, a positive SAM increases the chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and below average rainfall for western Tasmania.


  • The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to move across the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific regions over the coming fortnight, which may lead to increased westerly flow and rainfall across parts of northern Australia. The influence of the MJO may lead to the onset of the Australian monsoon during this time, while also increasing the risk of tropical low and cyclone formation across the region.


  • Sea surface temperatures remain warmer than average in the western Pacific, much of the Maritime Continent, and around northern Australia, particularly in the Coral Sea. Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.


  • Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C in the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.


Next update expected by 3 January 2022


Sunday 23 October 2022

It appears that the rot set in at the Bureau of Meteorology within a few months of Scott Morrison becoming prime minister and sadly when BOM was needed most it is alleged in had become highly dysfunctional


There absolutely needs to be a royal commission into what happened at Lismore. I saw grad mets barely off course in charge of things they would never have been in charge of up until that point. Lismore happened right in the short-staffing period. We go into that event, everyone is already fatigued and working long hours.” [The Saturday Paper, 22 October 2022]


The Saturday Paper, 22 October 2022:


The workplace culture at the Bureau of Meteorology is so toxic that a man was hospitalised twice for psychiatric care, another had a heart attack while working extreme overtime, and was asked to come back earlier than a doctor advised, and at least five more staff took stress leave because of panic attacks and anxiety regarding management oversight.


More than 20 staff have left the media and communications division at the BoM in the past 18 months. The entire marketing team at the agency was “bloodlet” and removed during a restructure and rebranding effort that consumed the time and resources of the weather office during a period of intensifying calamity relating to climate change and natural disasters. Senior meteorologists have also left.


Since June last year, the bureau has spent more than $260,000 with Elm Communications Canberra Pty Ltd, just trying to plug gaps in its public affairs workforce.


Although many of the concerns relate to the media division, meteorologists and other staff have complained of “the severe dysfunction” in this area infecting other parts of the service. Gag orders have been issued to prevent forecasters from speaking to journalists unless their comments are pre-approved. Media managers have explicitly banned the mention of climate change in connection with severe weather events.


In one case during major New South Wales flooding in March last year, an edict was issued that BoM forecasters and other specialists were not to speak to any media after a meteorologist was accused of “fluffing” his lines on climate change.


A spokesperson for the BoM denies this.


In addition to the above concerns, The Saturday Paper can reveal the Commonwealth agency admitted some months ago to staff that it has not been paying overtime correctly and has so far failed to reimburse employees. Indeed, it stopped communicating with them in August about the issue.


The bureau says, in a response to The Saturday Paper, that a “discrepancy” was identified and “an audit of overtime payments is currently under way and all payments made dating from 1 June 2021 are being reviewed”.


The Saturday Paper has spoken with 20 current and former staff members at the bureau to establish a distressing and farcial account of a government agency’s response to a changing climate.


Details in this account that do not appear within quotation marks have nevertheless been provided by individuals who spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing reprisals…..


There is so much focus on rebranding efforts like this and all of this window dressing and, in the meantime, the staff are really struggling to get the work done. We have lost so many people due to the [public service] transition to national production.”


Under these reforms, which began after the appointment of Andrew Johnson as director of the BoM, regional forecasting centres in every state and territory have been shuttered. State managers have been sacked and a national desk has been created instead. Johnson has pushed the project with fervour. The new branding, complete with public insistence that the Bureau of Meteorology be referred to respectfully as the Bureau, was, according to sources at the BoM, “completely driven by him”……


The Saturday Paper can reveal that the planned name change and new “corporate presence” began more than three years ago and cost far more than has been reported. In December 2018, the BoM paid almost $90,000 to brand specialists The Contenders for work on the new “positioning project” between then and April 2019. When a new general manager of communications – Emma Liepa – took over in April 2020, she “canned the project” and restarted it using her preferred contractor, The C Word Communications Agency Pty Ltd, owned and operated by Jack Walden. The BoM has characterised this contract as a “preliminary analysis” of perceptions about the agency and its “position in the marketplace” and not part of the “Brand project”.


Walden’s The C Word agency won a $70,000 contract in September last year in a “limited tender” to progress this project. Walden is now a senior manager of communications delivery at the BoM, having started in late November last year.


The Saturday Paper understands that Walden was hired as an EL2 “upper”, the same pay band as his boss Liepa, and is an ongoing public service employee. Walden also worked with Liepa in her previous role at the Victorian Healthcare Association. The Saturday Paper is not suggesting there is anything inappropriate in his employment.


In this case, a conflict of interest was advised,” a BoM spokesperson said.


There was no overlap between the work as a consultant and work when he [Walden] commenced as an employee with the Bureau.”


Internally, the rebranding has been prosecuted with fervour by Liepa and her colleagues but resisted and mocked by more junior staff. This is at odds with a BoM statement that says the sentiment, and feedback, from employees has been “overwhelmingly positive”.


Recently Andrew Johnson launched the new 2022-2027 strategy and rounded off the presentation by telling us all that we had to print off the strategy, read it and he would be testing us if he bumped into us in the office,” a staff member says. “He was dead serious.”


A forecaster who cannot be identified because they still work with the BoM said the “reaction around me on shift over the last few weeks to the new branding announcements has been somewhere between exasperated laughter and anger”.


They continue, “That this is prioritised by management, over severe long-term understaffing of mets [meteorologists] – seemingly not of management and consultants – combined with a huge top-to-bottom restructure of the public service hitting the really hairy stages.


All of this at the tail end of three La Niñas in a row with the potential for most of the east coast to flood so easily. Meteorologists are tired and overworked. The public reaction today was honestly wonderful and heartwarming. I’m so happy the public saw the bullshit instantly.”


Neither Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek, whose portfolio includes the BoM, nor her office, was aware the agency was about to launch its controversial edict and new look publicly in the middle of a flooding crisis across Victoria. When she demanded an urgent briefing, the response from senior bureau managers was “cagey” and “unsatisfactory”, according to people familiar with the exchange. Internally, BoM staff were told that they were to move full steam ahead and that the minister’s office was happy.


But what the minister’s office did not know, because the BoM did not tell them, was that the full cost of this rebranding was closer to $750,000, with some of that cost completely unnecessary after the banishing of The Contenders and early work done by that firm.


When Plibersek’s people demanded a full list of contracts, this was not mentioned. The Saturday Paper has confirmed this separately using information provided by concerned employees. Bizarrely, the BoM hired EY Sweeney on a $93,000 contract in March to conduct market research regarding the rebrand. What the consultants found was that just 15 per cent of people recognised the Bureau of Meteorology as “the Bureau” – the preferred name for brand recognition in the now-failed repositioning. More than 60 per cent, however, associated “BoM” with the agency.


What matters, according to every staff member who spoke for this piece, is that this side quest isn’t just a bad look. While these dramatic restructures and fiddly public relations exercises unfolded, some of the worst flooding in Australian history happened in northern NSW.


Residents in Lismore in particular were trapped after catastrophic flooding appeared to catch officials off guard. While the SES, itself struggling with a new centralisation plan, is responsible for issuing evacuation orders, they rely on information from the national meteorologists and hydrologists at the bureau.


The BoM went into this PST [Public Sector Transformation] understaffed, and only lost countless more staff during PST, not realising that not everyone wants to uproot their lives and move to Melbourne or Brisbane,” a meteorologist said.


There absolutely needs to be a royal commission into what happened at Lismore. I saw grad mets barely off course in charge of things they would never have been in charge of up until that point. Lismore happened right in the short-staffing period. We go into that event, everyone is already fatigued and working long hours.”


At this time – when a meteorologist was due to speak at a press conference about the unfolding flooding emergency in NSW, next to Premier Dominic Perrottet – there was a particular sensitivity within the agency about the warnings provided to the public. This forecaster was told they could speak only from pre-approved lines.


A separate source, who is no longer with the BoM, told The Saturday Paper that the organisation was “down 24 or 25” meteorologists and there were “no meteorologists in management”. The source said good people were slowly forced out, especially meteorologists: “There is such a strangled culture there now.”


After being appointed by the former Coalition government to head the BoM, Johnson set about an aggressive reform program, parts of which former employees concede were much needed. But it happened so fast it caused serious issues across the business.


The rate of change, ineffective change, that has happened has been a huge problem because there are so many conflicting priorities, that the bureau basically just ground to a halt,” a source says.


All the money just got funnelled into [PST] and squandered through massive use of contractors and people who didn’t have core knowledge of the bureau, so it took lots of time to ramp up to speed and the like.


Really important projects like ours just got buried and not funded because all the money just got funnelled off into these other areas.”


One of the projects that was delayed and underfunded was the upgrade of the bureau’s warning systems – a multi-part program with many moving parts – which was left in disarray.


As science was censored or relegated to the sideline and messages became more tightly controlled, the culture at the BoM deteriorated even further. In July and August this year, tens of thousands of dollars were paid to the conflict resolution firm Momentum, which promised to mediate workplace disputes and teach staff how to get along…….


The full article can read here.


Thursday 20 October 2022

How in late 2021 then Prime Minister #ScottyFromMarketing Morrison spent $220,296 his government couldn't afford on a BOM logo change & creating 9 new Twitter handles



Over four months since the nation rejected the Morrison Coalition Government, sending is members to the Opposition benches, the poor decisions of then prime minister Scott Morrison and his cabinet ministers are still coming to light. 

In this case Morrison was helped along by his then minister for the environment Sussan Ley, now ensconced as Deputy Leader of the Opposition and probably hoping no-one remembers that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) was in her ministerial portfolio when this downright silly decision was made.



The Guardian, 19 October 2022:

Revealed: BoM rebranding and logo cost $220,000 as Plibersek shoots down weather bureau’s name change

The environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, has shot down the Bureau of Meteorology’s request for people not to call it “the BoM”, saying Australians should be free to call it whatever they like as the full cost of the rebrand has been revealed.


The BoM rebrand cost more than $220,000, including cash to update the organisation’s visual style and logo, conduct research, develop pull-up banners and support media engagement.


My focus and the focus of the BoM should be on weather, not branding,” Plibersek said on Wednesday.


On Tuesday, the agency formerly known as the BoM asked media organisations to only refer to it by its full name, or shorthand as “the Bureau” – not the widely used initialism BoM. The media-wide alert sparked derision online after it was discovered that the Bureau appeared to have failed to reserve the Twitter accounts it had announced it planned to move to.




The letters BOM seen over a satellite view outline of Australia



Guardian Australia understands the change, detailed in an email bearing a new bureau logo, was part of a wider rebrand that commenced under the previous Coalition government and had been under way for some 18 months.


It was reported yesterday that a $69,300 contract had been awarded in September 2021 to Melbourne’s C Word Communications Agency for “branding of product naming services” and “brand implementation”.


The full cost of the rebranding exercise was $220,296.


Plibersek’s office said The C Word’s contract covered “communication and implementation planning support”. Another $118,177 was awarded to another agency, Era-Co, for brand strategy and design services, including visual style, brand position and logo, as well as research.


Another $32,819 was spent on “implementation costs” for the rebrand, including development of pull-up banners to support community engagement and media engagement for each state and territory, as well as design support to update collateral, systems and tools.


Era-Co was granted a $50,000 contract for “brand framework” for the Bureau of Meteorology, according to a notice published on the AusTender website in September 2020; then another $80,000 contract for “visual identity development”, according to a notice published in December 2020; and $17,820 for “design services”, in a notice published in August 2021.


The C Word’s $69,3000 contract for “brand implementation” was published September 2021.


I have asked for the information about the full cost of the whole rebrand project, which was undertaken under the previous government,” Plibersek said.


I’ve released that publicly. Now it’s time to let the Bureau of Meteorology get on with what it does best – predict the weather to help keep Australians safe.”


The environment minister said on Tuesday she did not “quite understand” why the bureau commenced a rebrand to update its name and logo, saying she was not focused on those factors during the severe flooding across much of the eastern seaboard. On Wednesday she appeared to rebuff the bureau’s calls to be referred to by another name.


The Bureau of Meteorology, the BoM – Australians will make up their own minds about what they call it,” Plibersek said.


What matters is accurate and timely weather information for communities, particularly during severe weather like we’re experiencing right now. That’s where my focus is. People are hurting.”…...


Several new Twitter handles proposed by the bureau, including @TheBureau_NSW and @TheBureau_AU, were quickly snapped up by ordinary users on Tuesday. A Bureau spokesperson said on Tuesday it was “working closely with Twitter to rectify this, in the meantime, all existing BOM Twitter handles remain active”.


By Wednesday, all those accounts were either suspended or free to use, having been vacated by the users who had parked on those handles…... [my yellow highlighting]


The Guardian, 18 October 2022:


The name change – which has been broadly ridiculed, and criticised for its rollout as many Australians face devastating floods – was, in part, driven by Jack Walden, according to insiders. Walden appears to have won the contract for the consultancy company, and been hired by the Bureau shortly afterwards.


In September 2021, the Bureau awarded a $69,300 contract to the C Word Communications Agency for “branding of product naming services and “brand implementation”.


C Word’s “chief communicator” until December 2021 was Jack Walden.


According to his LinkedIn profile, Walden started as senior manager, communications delivery at the Bureau in November 2021. The crossover in his employment dates has not been explained.


Guardian Australia understands the rebrand was broadly unpopular among existing staff, but that the Bureau insisted that not only it be implemented, but that staff only use the new terms.


One insider said they were made to use the new term, and another said they were treated “like naughty schoolchildren” if they slipped up and referred to the BoM instead.


Plibersek told Guardian Australia that “during this time of severe weather and flood disaster, I’m not focused on the name of the agency”.


I am focused on making sure the Bureau of Meteorology is providing the most accurate and timely information to communities affected by floods,” she said.


The rebrand commenced under the previous government for reasons I don’t quite understand.”……


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


UPDATE:

By late afternoon on Thursday 20 October 2022, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) had walked back on its rebranding demands.


The Bureau of Meteorology has backed down on its planned rebranding, saying people can still refer to the weather agency as “the BoM” – or anything else they like. The backflip follows the BoM’s announcement on Tuesday that it wanted media agencies to refer to it as “the Bureau” or its full name rather than “BoM”.....
following the subsequent public outcry and ridicule over the mooted move, the organisation said it would now stick with the BoM moniker. “The community is welcome to refer to the Bureau in any way they wish, including referring to us as the BoM,” the spokesperson said.

Thursday 12 May 2022

Eight days out from the 21 May 2022 federal general election and much of the NSW Northern Rivers region is on flood watch again


Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Flood Watch for the Northern Rivers and Central West

Issued at 12:21 pm EST on Thursday 12 May 2022


Flood Watch Number: 3


MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND CENTRAL WEST FROM THURSDAY


A trough over western inland New South Wales will generate further moderate to heavy rain in many areas of the Central West on Thursday. This may cause minor flooding along the Castlereagh, Macquarie and Bell Rivers from Thursday night.


* Reissue to include Castlereagh *


River level rises have been observed from recent moderate rainfall in the Northern Rivers. Further moderate showers expected on Thursday may see river levels rise to minor flood levels.


Renewed minor flooding is also possible along the Bogan River where a flood warning is current.


The Bureau is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further catchment specific warnings if and when required.


Catchment soil moisture is average.


The weather system is expected to cause flooding for the catchments listed. Flood Classes (minor, moderate, major) are only defined for catchments where the Bureau provides a flood warning service.


Catchments likely to be affected include:


Tweed and Rouse Rivers - minor flooding 

Brunswick River and Marshalls Creek - minor flooding

Wilsons River - minor flooding

Richmond River - minor flooding

Castlereagh River - minor flooding

Orange, Molong and Bell River - minor flooding

Turon and Macquarie Rivers to Burrendong Dam - minor flooding

Macquarie River d/s Burrendong Dam - minor flooding


Flood warnings are current for the Culgoa, Bokhara, Bogan, Paroo and Warrego Rivers.


For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/


For the latest rainfall and weather forecasts see www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/


For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/nsw/flood

 [my yellow highlighting]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


There is a chance of above median rainfall across much of the continent from 14 May 2022 to September 2022.


According to BOM long range forecasting there is also a 50-60% chance of the Page and Richmond electorates in the Northern Rivers region being “unusually wet” between 14 to 27 May 2022.


Stream Flow Forecast


Click on image to enlarge
















Climate outlook overview

Issued: 5 May 2022


Winter (June to August) rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia, except south-western Australia, the south-east coast, and southern Tasmania which have roughly equal chances of being above or below median.

June to August maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for northern, south-western, and south-eastern parts of Australia, but below median for broad areas of inland southern and central Australia.

Minimum temperatures for June to August are very likely to be warmer than median across almost all of Australia.

The weakening La Niña, the chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing this outlook.


Latest Climate Driver Update, 10 May 2022:


La Niña maintains strength


The 2021–22 La Niña event continues in the tropical Pacific, with little change in strength in the past few weeks.


Several indicators of La Niña, including tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, cloudiness near the Date Line, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), have maintained or slightly increased their strength over the past fortnight. However, beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, waters have warmed closer to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels.


Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO by the early southern hemisphere winter. Only one of seven models continues La Niña conditions through the southern winter. La Niña conditions increase the chances of above average rainfall for much of eastern Australia, while neutral ENSO has little influence on rainfall patterns.


The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD may develop in the coming months. While model outlooks have low accuracy at this time of year and hence some caution should be taken with IOD outlooks beyond May, there is strong forecast consistency across international models. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia. It also increases the chances of warmer days and nights for northern Australia.


The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive and is forecast to remain positive for the coming four weeks. During autumn SAM typically has a weaker influence on Australian rainfall, but as we approach winter, positive SAM often has a drying influence for parts of south-west and south-east Australia.


The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened in the western Indian Ocean. Most climate models indicate the MJO will briefly weaken, and then re-strengthen again later this week in the Maritime Continent or western Pacific region. Should the MJO re-strength in the Maritime Continent region, it can enhance rainfall in north-eastern Australia. It also typically increases cloudiness to Australia's north.


Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. [my yellow highlighting]